Nvidia's Record Quarter: Just How High Can the AI Bubble Float Before It Pops?
Alright, let's cut through the corporate press release fluff, shall we? Nvidia, bless their silicon-soaked hearts, dropped their Q3 fiscal 2026 numbers on Wednesday, and yeah, they blew past expectations. Record revenue of $57 billion, diluted EPS of $1.30. That’s up 62% year-over-year. Their Q4 forecast? Another $65 billion. CEO Jensen Huang is out there practically doing cartwheels, crowing that "Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out." The "AI ecosystem," he says, is "scaling fast."
Look, I ain't gonna lie, those are some eye-popping numbers. My old man always said, "numbers don't lie," and on the surface, Nvidia's stackin' chips like a high roller at Vegas. Their Data Center business, the real engine behind this whole AI frenzy, pulled in a massive $51.2 billion. That's up 66% year-over-year. Sixty-six percent! Gaming, Professional Visualization, Automotive – all up, but those are just footnotes in the epic poem of the data center. CFO Colette Kress is already talking about Blackwell Ultra as their leading architecture, while demand for the "prior" Blackwell is still through the roof. It's like they're selling the next iPhone before the current one even hit shelves and still can't keep either in stock.
But let's be real for a second. This whole thing feels less like a sustainable economic boom and more like a stampede for the last lifeboat on a sinking ship. Everyone's gotta have AI, right? And everyone's gotta have Nvidia's GPUs to do AI. It's a gold rush, and Nvidia's the only one selling the picks and shovels. They're making a fortune, offcourse, but what happens when everyone has their pickaxe? Or when someone else starts selling a cheaper, better one? Is this a genuine technological revolution, or just a massive game of musical chairs where the music is about to stop?
The Cracks in the AI Kingdom
Now, here's where my cynical Spidey-sense really starts tingling. Remember all that hullabaloo back in September when Jensen Huang and Sam Altman announced Nvidia was gonna pump a cool $100 billion into OpenAI for supercomputing facilities? Sounded like a done deal, right? A handshake between titans. Well, turns out Nvidia's Q3 financial filing quietly dropped a little nugget: there's "no assurance" of a final definitive agreement.
No assurance. Let that sink in.
This isn't just a minor detail; it's a gaping, neon-lit billboard reminding us all that corporate announcements are often just that – announcements. They're shiny promises designed to pump up the stock price and get headlines, not necessarily ironclad contracts. Meanwhile, OpenAI, the very company that was supposed to get this $100 billion, went and signed a definitive agreement with Nvidia's rival, AMD, in October. Six gigawatts of AMD's Instinct GPUs, plus a warrant for up to 160 million AMD shares. Yeah, you read that right. AMD. That's like your fiancée announcing she's definitely marrying you, then signing a pre-nup with your arch-rival. What the hell is going on there? Are we supposed to believe both stories?
And it gets better. Remember Peter Thiel's hedge fund? Sold its entire $100 million stake in Nvidia before this earnings report even dropped. SoftBank Group? Unloaded $5.8 billion worth of Nvidia stock to fund their own AI ventures. These guys ain't stupid. They see something. Is it just profit-taking, or do they smell something rotten in Denmark? Michael Burry, the guy who called the 2008 housing crash, has been openly trashing the AI trade, claiming companies like Meta and Oracle are artificially inflating earnings by playing games with data center equipment depreciation. He ain't wrong to question it, is he? My gut tells me these big players aren't just selling because they're bored...
Nvidia's also out here making a $5 billion commitment to invest in Intel and up to $10 billion in Anthropic. They're basically investing in the companies that buy their own stuff. Is that smart business, or is it a sign they need to prop up demand? It's like a drug dealer buying shares in his biggest customer's rehab clinic. I'm not saying it's illegal, but it sure as hell makes you wonder about the long-term health of this "ecosystem."
The Emperors of AI Have Fewer Clothes Than We Think
So, yeah, Nvidia had a monster quarter. The stock jumped 5%, dragging AMD and Micron along for the ride. Everyone's happy. For now. But beneath the surface, there's a lot of smoke and mirrors, a lot of "no assurances," and a lot of smart money heading for the exits. This AI wave is massive, no doubt, but every wave eventually breaks. And when this one does, I'm not sure everyone's gonna be swimming ashore with a smile on their face. The question isn't if the bubble pops, but when, and how many of us get caught in the undertow.